Capitalization of the future

Baker Tilly experts have analyzed Kazakhstan's commercial real estate market development, including office, retail, and warehouse space as of 1H 2023. The research focused on highlighting new products on the market and technology solutions in co-working spaces that will make them more attractive to tenants in 2024.

E-commerce has become one of the fastest-growing segments of the economy due to the development of information technology and access to the Internet. It is predicted that this trend will continue to grow in 2024, creating a significant demand for warehousing facilities. Online retailers and logistics companies are looking to reduce delivery times and improve customer service, which means actively seeking warehouse space close to key markets and consumers. The market of e-commerce in Kazakhstan has also started to develop such directions as «Darkstore, Dark kitchen, and Q-commerce».

The development of the real estate market and growth in demand has seen investors bought some large business centers in Almaty in the first half of the year for their own needs. The purchase of proprietary office space can be beneficial in the long term, as it reduces costs and allows to optimize operations.

Several new office facilities will appear in Almaty, including A Class business centers - BC Deniz Park and BC Ortau, B+ Class - Polyfunctional Center Nurly-Tau ALA Center and BC on Leskovaya Street, B+ Class - Polyfunctional Center Nurly-Tau, BC ALA Center (and BC Leskova,3 and in Astana - BC Sensata until the end of 2024.

Analysis of the Business Centers The office real estate market in Almaty and Astana has undergone significant changes over the last year, being exposed to a variety of factors that have influenced the volume of supply and rental rates.

Rental rates for A Class and A+ offices as of 1H 2022 were around 16,400 KZT/sq.m. and compared to 1H 2023 increased to 17,000 KZT/sq.m., representing an increase of around 4%. Rental rates for B Class and B+ offices as of 1H 2023, increased from 5,500 KZT/sq.m. to 8,100 KZT/sq.m. compared to 1H 2022, representing a 47% increase. Offices of other classes increased by 56% compared to the same period in 2022 (from 3,200 KZT/sq.m. to 5,000 KZT/sq.m.). The growth of rental rates was due to the active relocation of international organizations in 2022.

In Almaty, prices for A Class and A+ offices in 1H 2023 increased from 14,400 KZT/sq.m. to 19,200 KZT/sq.m., representing an increase of around 33%. This increase can be attributed to higher supplier prices, repair costs, utilities, and maintenance costs, as well as due to the high cost of bank loans in Kazakhstan. Rental rate for B and B+ class offices also show an increase of about 10%, from 9,100 KZT/sq.m. to 10,000 KZT/sq.m. compared to 1H 2022. This trend may indicate a change in tenants' preferences. The rental rate for offices in other classes increased by 18% (from 3,400 KZT/sq.m. to 4,000 KZT/sq.m.) in 1H 2023.

Almaty has the largest office real estate market with a total area of 2.4 mln sq.m. as of 1H 2023, of which A and A+ Class - 9%, B and B+ Class - 47% and other classes - 44%. At the end of 1H 2023, the office space per 1,000 residents in Almaty amounted to 2,352 sq.m. The total area in Astana's office real estate market is 1.7 mln. sq.m., of which A and A+ Class - 9%, B and B+ Class - 40% and other classes - 51%. At the end of 1H 2023, the indicator of office space per 1,000 residents in Astana city amounted to 1,650 sq.m.

In 1H 2023, the occupancy rate of B Class increased to 93,6% compared to 1H 2022 (90.7%) . B+ Class also increased from 90,8% in to 93,8%. A and A+ Class office occupancy increased from 90,4% to 94,4% in 1H 2023. This data shows a stable growth of interest in office space in A and A+ classes, which indicates the attractiveness of the commercial real estate market in Almaty. For 1H 2023 the occupancy rate of offices of other classes amounted to 95,9% and remained at the level of the same period of 2022.

Analysis of the warehouse market The situation in the warehouse real estate market in Kazakhstan is currently characterized by an acute shortage of vacant warehouse space. The main factors contributing to the shortage of A and B Class warehouses over the past three years include the gradual consolidation of market players, the growth of inventories of almost all market players, and the active penetration of international manufacturers and suppliers.

The dynamics of the index of rental rates for warehouses have increased significantly compared to last year. Over 2022, the average rental cost of Almaty warehouses increased by 36%. Astana saw an increase from 0,4% to 1,6% and Almaty from 0,8% to 1,8%.

Recently, there has been an active development of projects oriented towards the construction of warehouse complexes for a specific tenant based on the Built-to-Suit principle. This approach is beginning to take a central place in the segment of warehouse real estate development. Build-to-Suit construction of warehouses for the needs of a specific customer (Build-to-Suit construction) has started to develop actively in Kazakhstan. Among the trends in the field of warehouse construction, we can note the increase in the size and height of warehouse facilities, the growing popularity of Build-to-Suit construction, as well as the influence of sustainable development trends.

The first Build-to-Suit project appeared in Kazakhstan in March 2023 for Ozon in Astana. The project was implemented according to international standards. Another Ozon warehouse facility will be realized in 2024 in Almaty.

Аnalysis of shopping and entertainment centers

As of the beginning of 2023, there are 102 shopping and entertainment centers in Kazakhstan, of which 33 objects (which is 32% of the total number) are located in Almaty, and 11 objects (11% of the total number) are located in Astana. The remaining cities of Kazakhstan concentrate 58 facilities (57% of the total number).

After the pandemic, most shopping centers switched to a system of receiving a percentage of tenant turnover, or as a combined payment: minimum rental rate plus a percentage of turnover.

For 1H 2023, the average rental rate for shopping centers in Kazakhstan increased by 3% compared to the previous year, reaching 5,278 KZT/sq.m. Commercial real estate rental market in Kazakhstan continues to grow and strengthen, which may attract the attention of potential investors and landlords.

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Baker Tilly is one of the leading, dynamically growing consulting companies in the market of Kazakhstan for more than 7 years. We render valuation services for deal advisory and strategy consulting projects. Also, we provide tax review, accounting and HR outsourcing, engineering consulting as well as transaction advisory services (M&A), due diligence (Financial& Tax DD), strategy consulting, legal support, marketing research and assurance services.

Ramina Nazyrova, MRICS, Valuation Partner, Baker Tilly Qazaqstan Advisory LLP

Kamila Khilanova, Valuation Manager, Baker Tilly Qazaqstan Advisory LLP

Madina Nessipbek, Valuation Consultant

• Baker Tilly Qazaqstan Advisory